What To Do In the Outfield?

Several serious questions loom in the bigger Yankees picture this off-season–Cashman’s status, Girardi’s getting a second year to prove the first was (hopefully) only one down year, Posada’s health and future position, a rotation decimated by injuries and in serious need of rebuilding (probably at least somewhat from outside the organization) that to me stands as priority #1, getting a first baseman, and more.  But to carry forward a theme I briefly addressed in the previous post, and considering that the Yankees have a glut of outfielders under contract  (and one in JD who is somewhat immovable contractually), looking internally for a moment and specifically at the outfield illustrates even more that this off-season will be very telling to watch for the short-term and long-term future of the organization.

Ed Price of The Star-Ledger has a good piece worth reading concerning the implications of keeping Matsui at DH and as an outfielder.  I don’t necessarily agree with all of it, but he raises important scenarios to consider, touches on much and, most importantly to me, echoes what I consider to be the biggest implications for the 2009 Yankees–that the outfield from next year forward may do more for the near and distant future to shape the Yankees than the moves for any other position players this off-season.  JD and Matsui are under contract for 2009, Nady effectively is at the organization’s disposal, Abreu is finishing his option year, and Melky has much to prove on and off the field.  Tim Bontemps of The New York Post has a good piece that I’ll touch on later throwing Austin Jackson’s hat into the outfield ring, though I think it’s a little early for that yet, and Brett Gardner’s speed is a tremendous asset in the field and on the base paths though he needs to generate more drive in his swing with better (any?) use of his upper body.  That is, the Yankees have seven players currently at various levels of the organization who are either worth keeping or worth a look (or for Melky and Gardner, another look) at playing in The Bronx.  Given the offensive productivity of JD, Nady, and Abreu, the corner outfield positions are not places in which the Yanks need to look for any external solutions unless they stumble across a great opportunity, which I don’t envision.  They’re not nearly as high a priority for upgrading as the rotation or first or, defensively, center.

Yet there are some big questions, especially about who will play center field.  Barring trades, JD, Nady, and Matsui will be in The Bronx in 2009.  In what capacity is the question for all three. Nady is currently playing left because of Melky’s failures at the plate and off-field, late-night escapades, moving JD there.  Nady can and has played right field, and might next year should the Yankees not re-sign Abreu, which might occur.  Matsui has returned to the lineup but needs off-season surgery on his knee to make him a viable option to play any outfield next year.

JD’s offense has been excellent this year (.308/.383, 12 HR, 59 RBIs, 28/34 SB, 86 runs) and is more than worthy of a center fielder.  However, and this wasn’t unknown to either the Yankees or their fans when the team signed him before 2006, JD’s weak arm compromises his ability to play a very deep left-center and center, offsetting the advantage that his speed and experience provides.  He has only 2 outfield assists, one each from left and center.  Without Melky in center–his own fault, really–playing JD in center in 2009 would mean that the Yankees would defensively have a center fielder with certain unquestioned limitations and liabilities for the last decade.  While I loved Bernie and thought he made very good reads and jumps on balls, his arm was never great and was in decline from shoulder problems really from the end of the 1990s onward.  Continuing to play JD in center allows the Yanks to take advantage of his resurgent offense at the expense of defense, at least as far as any kind of arm strength.

But is the thus-far internal alternative better on the Yanks’ current roster?  I’d say no, unless Jackson and/or Gardner improve and hit a lot, which remains to be seen with the youngsters.  On the current veterans, I disagree with Price on his characterization quoted below:

And if Matsui is a DH, that would seem to put Xavier Nady in right field and Johnny Damon in left, with center field left for Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner or someone else.

The only way to keep Bobby Abreu (whose contract is up), then, would be to put Nady in left and Damon in center, and that seems defensively risky.

I don’t disagree with Price that the current lineup of Nady, JD, and Abreu from left to right isn’t at least a little “defensively risky,” for it is at center as discussed above.  But what Price seems to ignore is that having a healthy Matsui in left–far from a given considering his knee problems in recent years–and moving Nady to right is really no better than the current lineup.  In fact, it’s even more limited defensively.  Matsui makes pretty good reads and has a quick release, but his release is compensatory for a below-average arm.  Coupling him–again a presumption at this point, something that bit the Yankees in the rear end in 2008 as we’ve seen in luridly painful detail with the rotation–with JD or Gardner in center adds another weak arm while making a deep left center in Yankee Stadium even more difficult to cover with even less speed in left.

I have no idea whether Price is expressing his own opinion or channeling the organization’s mindset on Abreu, but I am far from quick to let Abreu walk after 2008 for a few reasons.  First is his defense which, despite his continued allergic reaction to the wall, is at least as good as Nady’s (the presumptive alternative in right) if not better in right (and is with the arm, I’d argue).  Keeping Abreu and Nady at the corners would shore up the outfield better than Matsui and Nady in left and right, respectively.  Just as importantly, Abreu has not declined offensively at all (.302/.375, 16 HRs, 87 RBIs) except in two areas, only one of which is his doing–runs scored (not his fault given A-Rod and Giambi’s poor RISP hitting) and stolen bases (his doing and probably indicative of his age, but something the Yanks can replace with others stealing more).  Otherwise, Abreu has made a very good case to stay in pinstripes and has expressed his desire to do so. I say he should.

The question with Abreu is for how long to do so, not whether or not to do so.  He’s going to be 35 in 2009, not too old but not young either–and only three months older than Derek Jeter, whose age at this point should be no less a question than Abreu’s.  BA’s contract is up, and he will likely draw interest from a good several teams.  His patience, unlike Giambi’s vaunted eye, continues to translate into not only a good OBP but a very good average.  Crucially and unlike A-Rod, Giambi, and much of the rest of the team, Abreu has been very good with RISP and runners on–.299 and .327, respectively.  The guy produces and in the clutch.  Can the Yanks count on that from Nady, whom I like a lot but whose 2008 is a good improvement from the rest of his career?  That’s a definite uncertainty and not one I’m willing to risk.  It’s not wise, in my opinion.  I say keep Abreu for two years, with a third option year being a club option only.  Why?  In effect, if the Yanks sign him to a one-year deal with a player option, given the money that Abreu would likely get for a deal and presuming his desire to re-up for 2010 under such a contract, the end result would be a two-year deal anyway.  If the Yanks want to move him, it’s no easier to do so under such a contract than one a season longer.  If Abreu would be willing to sign year-to-year as long as the money is lucrative, then great, but that’s unlikely.  Like most players understandably, Abreu will probably want some form of multi-year deal.  I say make it lucrative but short for, if he does taper off, the long-term commitment isn’t too onerous.

Price does do a good job discussing the domino effect that the outfield’s situation has for the DH, and how it overlaps with Posada’s situation.  Should Posada return on time but lack the shoulder strength to effectively throw as a catcher, and if he’s willing to move, he may play first and replace Giambi.  This solves the problem of what to do with Posada only as long as he’s good at first, not quite as uncertain as Matsui’s possibly playing first but not a solution there in my mind, either.  Posada has a good arm now but is slow afoot.  Whether or not he’ll have good enough footwork and even a bit of quickness for the rapid response that playing first (”the other hot corner”) well requires is still uncertain to me.  Either way, Posada at first creates additional personnel issues for the outfield as Price rightly states.  It creates a logjam at DH, forcing current players JD or Matsui to play first or the field. It makes me wonder all the more if someone gets moved and, while I like him a lot–always have–and want him to DH in 2009, if anyone should it’s Matsui.  I’d rather see him go for a valuable player, especially a pitcher, in return than take a chance with Abreu gone and possibly relying on Melky to bounce back.  My gut also tells me that Matsui will have a productive 2009 if he’s healthy.  The guy produces.

Speaking of which, Melky’s drastic tapering off offensively really hurts the Yanks, for the team could and probably would in retrospect live with his 2007 numbers (.273/.327, 8 HRs, 73 RBIs, 13/18 SB) with the hope that he could improve the OBP and run more.  But 2008 has been a disaster for him (.242/.296, 8 HRs, 36 RBIs,9/11 SB), calling into question his future with the Yankees.  He might get his head and game straight, and played well in SWB when sent down (.333/.409, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1/4 SB [?!?]), but to me playing Melky in center right now is a much bigger risk than playing JD for various reasons.  He’s gone from a fairly good offensive player and a very good defensive player with possibly more upside to one who was somewhat of a head case and, right now, no better than a fourth outfielder with a weak bat.

I think the best solution is for the Yankees to acquire a first baseman, keep Abreu, and let one of the current outfielders DH–Matsui most likely if he stays.  Regular commenter Mike has floated Joey Votto of the Reds, a good young first baseman (.294/.363, 18 HRs, 70 RBIs, .291 w/ RISP, .282 w/ runners on, nearly as many RBIs versus lefties (34) as against righties (36) in half the at-bats) and lefty bat who, with some improvement at first to reduce his 11 errors, would seem a nice fit and solution to the presumptive first base opening.

The development of Austin Jackson raises another option, although I still see him in SWB but, as Bontemps quotes a scout as saying, who knows what happens with a good ST.  Then again, Gardner impressed a lot in ST and went to SWB to play every day, not a bad thing, and Gardner still has much to improve at the plate if not in the field.  Jackson was very good in AA Trenton (.285/.354, 9 HRs, 69 RBIs, 19/25 SB, 33 doubles, but 113 K’s in 131 games, something to improve but note Jeter’s K totals as a kid–over 100 every year from 1996-1999 when age 22-25).  He will be 22 next year and has been compared to Lastings Milledge as a potential five-tool player.  The scout quoted above touted that Jackson’s ability to steadily improve throughout the year, that he hit third and played center all year.  Unless Jackson explodes onto the scene–and remember Gardner hit over .400 last Spring, too–I’d rather see him continue to develop in SWB and get a shot–and playing time–should anyone get hurt or not produce.  Youngsters need to play, Gardner included, in addition to deserving a shot when they perform well.  I’d also rather not see kids rushed up until ready.  They need to show ability as well as maturity.  I’m not saying Jackson lacks maturity since I admitedly don’t know enough about the kid, but I’d rather not see a repeat of the fiasco with Ian E. Neumann or Melky for that matter-though I’ve thankfully heard nothing about Jackson to indicate proclivities of Melky or the now-traded Jose Tabata.  It’s a fine line to walk between giving kids a chance and holding them back too long while assessing their maturity in the minors.  I do like that the organization has kept and groomed Jackson, and it would be great to see him as a possibility to replace JD in center in 2010 (if not before, again depending on a lot).

I’ve made my case for the outfield of Nady, JD, and Abreu in 2009–admittedly not knowing if the Yanks will have another player and preferably center fielder on their radar.  Any other ideas and options from people?