On Mariano, clearly the greatest ever to close a game and the guy in whom I always have full confidence, I admit that what may be the weakest part of my argument about Joba is what I say about Mariano staying a while. It’s admittedly speculative and stems from a couple things. I genuinely think that, should he WANT to pitch for 4-5 more years, Mariano of all could make that happen. Whether or not he will, I don’t know and thinking clearly am skeptical. But it’s rooted in my belief that Mariano can accomplish anything he wants on the mound. Anything. Heck, regardless of Joba starting or relieving in the next few years, Joba could STILL move to close when Mariano decides to hang ‘em up. I just believe Joba should get the chance to hone his craft starting, as long as he’s healthy. It’s early, and I don’t want to presume he’s injury-prone quite yet. To me, keeping him in the bullpen instead of the rotation for fear of an injury is de facto prior restraint. It also illustrates in me the utter unwillingness to let Mariano go, not just because of his great history but because the guy continues to get it done as well as anyone. I’d choose him right now to close a game over anyone, hands down.

On Wood, it’s a good point, and his 3/4 motion with a hitch spelled trouble. You’re in a better position to determine its inherent violence than I am, Brendan. I always considered Wood’s delivery choppy–the antithesis of smooth. He probably threw batters off with it. It probably also cost him a lengthier, much more productive career.

So did Cubs managers, from Don Baylor to Rene Lachemann to Dusty Baker, none of whom could manage a pitch count to save his life. After Tommy John surgery in 1999, Wood was worked back into the staff in 2000, then resumed a good workload in 2001. In 24 of his 28 starts, he threw over 100 pitches; in 17 of those 24, over 110. 2003 did him in, when in 25 of his 32 starts he threw over 100 pitches. In 20 of those 25 over 100, he threw at least 110. In 13 of those 20, he threw over 120, including five of six starts in the last month. Then in the playoffs, 124 and 117 in Game 1 and 5 starts against Atlanta, then 109 and 112 in Games 3 and 7 against Florida. Wood got overworked in Chicago, especially considering his history of arm trouble. Thus far, the Yankees haven’t pushed Joba and that’s a big plus.

the sabermatician in me realizes that a team has to throw about 1400 innings for a season…and i realize that the key to winning games is to have your best pitchers throw as many of these innings as possible…if joba throws 150 innings as a starter (the yanks will most def put an innings cap on him in order to protect him arm), he be be infinitely more valuable than throwing 70-80 innings as a reliever…there is a reason that a mediocre starter (gil meche) gets 11 mill per season and the best closer of all time (rivera) only gets 10 mill…

the former division 1 collge baseball player in me understands mechanics and the finer aspects of the game, and i try not to get caught up in stats all the time…joba has an extremely violent delivery, and i highly doubt that he will ever be able to throw 200 innings in a season as a full time starter…

look no further than the cubs who had a young hurler with a violent delivery kerry wood…he got hurt all the time, then had to come back as a closer…

mo is now an older pitcher and prolly has 2-3 seasons left…we can keep joba in the pen, have a dominant pen for the next 2-3 yrs and groom him to be mo’s replacement…

while i realize that we will not be getting the maximum value out of our asset, we will be getting something, which is more than you get out of a pitcher on the DL

We’re certainly on the same page about the innings being the key for the rotation–quality innings.

But a look at the 2008 Yankees shows that Rasner was 3rd on the team in IP. God bless Rasner, who was put into a situation over his head (nice middle innings guy, nice spot starter, but injuries forced him into a higher role) but having him as your #3 guy in IP? Ouch.

Only four Yankees threw 100 or more innings last year. Pettitte 204. We don’t know if Andy is coming back or not. Moose 200 1/3. Retired. #3 Rasner as I mentioned. 113 1/3. The fourth? Joba, who barely made it with 100 1/3.

Getting innings is imperative. Hopefully all stay healthy. Getting guys to go deep into ballgames (AJ, CC, Wang, etc) means so much. Healthy starters going deep. To me that is the important thing.

I understand that Joba is already excellent as a set-up man; no question there. I also like his comportment, which many lack when setting up and closing. He’s tough, and I think his toughness is in part a product of his upbringing–a tough life at times that helped produce not just a great arm but a tough demeanor.

But on whether or not he should start or relieve, to me there’s no question he should be a starter. Tim mentions the number of innings of quality pitching that would come from his starting–agreed. The Yanks desperately need this, as last year showed in often painful fashion. Plus, Joba has several good to excellent pitches–starter stuff–while other elite closers such as Mariano, Papelbon, and K-Rod have had two or fewer. His stuff merits the most use in innings, not the frequency of appearances, to me. Also, Joba doesn’t just have good starter stuff. He has the stuff to be a front-line starter, a real difference-maker in any rotation and especially if he were at the so-called back of the rotation where, by the way, he could have his innings reduced by being occasionally skipped.

I’ll add two points here. The first is that I wouldn’t overlook the possibility that the Yankees could groom a set-up man from the various talented prospects and recent acquisitions filling the minors. Sanchez, Albaladejo (who began 2008 with the club, with which I agreed), and Melancon are three prime candidates to possibly make the club this year or, if not, to get regular work and likely excel at SWB. They throw hard and have been, to various degrees, already groomed to set up–certainly the case for Melancon and, to lesser degrees in 2008 because of injuries, Sanchez and Albaladejo. This winter, Albaladejo has done quite well in saving games–13 of 14 saves, 0.00 ERA, 16 K to 2 BBs in 19 innings. The Yankees are working on both stocking the bullpen–already a strength–at the major-league level and finding an eventual replacement for Mariano–no mean feat to eventually replace the greatest closer by far ever and, to me, the greatest reliever I’ve ever seen.

That brings me to my second point. While I fully understand and appreciate the concern over Mariano’s age, he is one pitcher I wouldn’t bet against pitching for another few years if he so chose. He might not want to, but I wouldn’t bet against his ABILITY to do so. Yes, health could be an issue for him in the next two (or more) years. Yet look at his career overall. He’s had all of one so-called “bad year,” 2007 and even that was pretty good–3-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 30 saves (his third-HIGHEST WHIP in a season) in a year punctuated by periods of underwork and several tough outings amidst lots of terrific pitching from him. Additionally, there’s something about him that any reliever, including Joba, will find tough to replace because he’s just that great–his calm in the face of dire situations, his ability to knuckle down and get the toughest of outs in the toughest of situations. On this, I defer to my friend Frank the Sage’s classic characterization of Mariano–”When Mariano comes into the manager’s office, holding his right arm in his left hand and throwing it on the desk, THEN will I believe he can’t get someone out.” I couldn’t agree more. Not to be overlooked, Mariano has conditioned himself for the rigors of the season by resting him arm in the off-season until the few weeks before pitchers and catchers report, then starts throwing. This has kept his arm fresh but also his velocity up. Notice that even now in his late 30s, when Mariano’s velocity occasionally dips, it’s still in the low ’90s–just about what it was 10 years ago at its ebb. At his peak now, he still regularly hits 94-95–and he’s going to be pitching at age 39 this season! Should that rough range continue, I really, really wouldn’t bet against his continuing to pitch unless he really didn’t want to. The Yankees could always go year-to-year with a big salary. If he’s still very good, who could rightly tell him to walk away? Only Mariano and/or his family.

I’m not saying not to groom guys, but the Yanks are doing that and, not to be ignored, Mariano’s ability to pitch at such a high level and velocity after all these years is in good part what has made him so special. People have waited for him to tail off and it just hasn’t happened, with 2008 being an incredible year–6-5, 39 saves, 1.40 ERA, 0.665 WHIP–at age 38.

Sorry to go on for a stretch. I’ll consider it inspired by all the good comments.

Swedski: “Gotta disagree.
1) Pitchers with the temperment to work out of the bullpen don’t come along often. Joba has shown that he can live up to that pressure.
2)Innings, he will probably only pitch 140 150 this year. Pull the trigger and make a decision. Don’t redo what happened last year. Why not just go with making him the 8th inning man and groom him for Mariano’s job in 2 years.
3)Give Pettite till mid Jan to decide then go after someone like Pavano for minimal money and incentives. Let Aceves take the 5th spot or Hughes if he has a ‘Special Spring’ if not give him another year in AAA.

He could be the answer to Mariano in 2 years. If you groom him then there will be no discussion when M’s contract is up and he can retire without the drama ala Bernie.”

Quality innings from starters shortens the game and keeps your worst relievers off the field. The Yankees had two pitchers throw 200 innings last year, Moose and Pettitte. Moose is retired and Pettitte might not be back. The Yankees need to replace those innings somewhere. Replacing them with garbage like Sidney Ponson is emphatically not the answer.

In other news there is playoff football going on today. The no-name Falcons vs. the no-name Cardinals and ex-Arena Football League star and grocery bagger Kurt Warner. The Cardinals will beat the Falcons by a TD. Warner’s playoff experience is the deciding factor. He will make the big plays down the stretch and Matt Ryan will not.

Peyton Manning and the Greatest Show on Turf Redux vs. Phillip Rivers and the Strangest Show on Grass. Most of their games have been decided by single digits. The Colts cannot run the ball but they do have Peyton Manning. The Chargers have had problems running the ball and have been injured. Still, Phillip Rivers had a great season (top 5 in passer rating I believe). The difference in the game will be Adam Vinateri. The man does not miss clutch FGs and he already drilled a game winner in SD this year. Vinateri does it again and the Colts down SD by a FG.

Hopefully he does not get hurt again as a starter but that remains a strong probability given his violent delivery mechanics.