PECOTA: Yankees to Finish Third

According to Baseball Prospectus via Chad Jennings, PECOTA projected the Yankees to finish third in the AL East–with the third-best record in baseball at 93-69–and to score 917 runs while allowing 789. This would be 60 more than they project the Rays to yield.

Sorry but, barring a rash of Yankee injuries, I’m not buying it. The Yankees are pretty well stacked, have an experienced team in place, and happen to be the defending World Series champs. My modest coin is on them. The Rays are talented, but I’m not sold on the likes of Sonnanstine by any stretch yet, and he’s hardly the only wild card among their pitchers.

Projections are swell for some things, but that’s why baseball gets played. I myself put little faith in these, regardless of their outcomes.

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Published in: on January 29, 2010 at 8:32 am  Comments (7)  

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  1. [...] PECOTA: Yankees to Finish Third « Heartland Pinstripes [...]

  2. I picked the Yankees to win the division with 104 wins. The wins may be a little generous, as predicting anyone to win that many games might be a little extravagant. But regardless of the win total, they are the best team in baseball, on paper, heading into the season.

    http://www.statisticianmagician.com/

  3. Joe! Good to see you, and your comment reminds me that I wanted to comment on your Schilling-Mariano post, which I’ll do my best tonight. Sorry; I’ve just been busy. On the Yankees’ wins, as things stand now, I am thinking 100-102 wins, with Boston the Wild Card. Tampa is talented, but I’m not sold that they are there with NY and Boston.

    I hope all has been well, Joe.

  4. Nate silver has the coolest and geekiest glasses I’ve ever seen. totally envious. also love 538…but — that’s IT

  5. Yeah Mike, 538 and Silver are just outstanding for statistical analysis, decent on politics, and seeing some big-picture socio-political issues. And the specs. Other than that, turning professional baseball into a computer-driven gamed-out scenario is akin to considering the upcoming season through the lens of multi-sided Dungeons & Dragons dice rolls for role-playing on the base paths.

    I’ll take the real thing, thanks.

  6. Chad Jennings at Lohud states that Pecota updated and changed some projections. It still calls for one hell of an AL East race (as well as a few others). The shocker for me, is the Braves and Phils tied with only 85 each? …and (which I’m tending to agree with) the Nats as better than the Mets.

  7. Yeah Mike, there are some anomalies I just don’t see shaking out all around. We’ll see. I still need to see that the Rays are not a one-year flash in the pan. They’re definitely talented and have made some upgrades, but we’ll see how their staff rounds out, and how their lineup stacks up to others.


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