On Burnett and October

I saw that Mike Sommer at The Sommer Frieze has addressed, and Jay at Fack Youk will address [Edit: and did here], where in the playoff rotation Burnett and Pettite should start.  Mike argued that, despite Burnett’s recent struggles, he should be second behind Sabathia for a few reasons.  I concur with that, with the addition of these numbers revealing a dramatic disparity between Burnett’s performances at home and away:

  • Home: 4-2, 3.47 ERA, 1.377 WHIP, 84K/85 2/3 IP, 1.91 K/BB ratio.
  • Away: 6-6, 5.12 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 71 K/84 1/3 IP, 1.87 K/BB ratio.

While some of the differences are marginal, such as in K/BB ratio, all of Burnett’s key numbers are better at home.  Nor are his numbers in other ball parks where the Yanks might be expected to play in October very encouraging:

  • Anaheim: 0-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.227 WHIP, 17 K/22 IP.
  • Arlington: 2-1, 3.96 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 23 K/25 IP.
  • Detroit: 2-1, 9.42 ERA, 1.744 WHIP, 16 K/14 1/3 IP.
  • Boston: 3-2, 5.35 ERA, 1.415 WHIP, 26K/35 1/3 IP.

Regardless of past numbers in specific places, my preference would be to place A.J. in the place in which he has the best chance to succeed–at home, in Yankee Stadium.  With the Yanks holding a commanding lead in the race for home field, this scenario looks not just likely but, given his road numbers, preferable to what degree it is possible to slot him in home starts.  Pettite could also start third, is great on the road this year (7-2, 3.33 ERA, 1.187 ERA, 67 K/78 1/3 IP, 2.58 K/BB ratio), has plenty of experience and success in the playoffs in road starts, and is a proven tough competitor.  This would alternate the rotation’s lefties and righties, which I favor to what degree possible and preferable.

Published in: on September 2, 2009 at 10:23 am  Leave a Comment  

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